Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

From stopping to preventing atrocities

The Constitutive Act of the African Union (AU) provides for the right of the continental body to intervene in the face of war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. According to its formulation, Article 4(h) intervention entails military force, which is triggered when a target state fails to discharge its duty to protect its population from mass atrocities. Although Article 4(h) is an ambitious statutory commitment to intervene in a member state by the AU, the Libyan crisis in 2011 showed the ambivalence of the continental institution to act in a decisive and timely manner. The AU's failure to invoke Article 4(h) exposed the need for building the capacity and political will to intervene and to interpret Article 4(h). Therefore, the primary focus of this article is on how Article 4(h) should be interpreted. Flowing from the Pretoria Principles, which seek to provide clarity on the implementation of the AU's right of intervention, Article 4(h) should be viewed as a duty rather than a right to prevent or stop mass atrocities. The duty dimension of Article 4(h) derives from the international instruments that AU member states have ratified to prevent mass atrocities. Rather than being a paper tiger, Article 4(h) should be used in a proactive and timely manner as a military option available to the AU to persuade member states to prevent or halt atrocities. As a last resort, military force pursuant to Article 4(h) should aim at protecting the population at risk and pursuing the perpetrators in order to avoid contravening Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations (UN). Although military intervention can save lives in the short term, it cannot necessarily address the underlying, structural causes of atrocities, such as ethnic rivalries, economic inequalities and scramble for natural resources, among others. Therefore, the prevention of mass atrocities should not be equated with, or be seen through the prism of, Article 4(h) intervention alone. The focus should instead be on the entire spectrum of preventive strategies at the disposal of the AU in the face of mass atrocities, including the African human rights system and the African Peer Review Mechanism.     

Ho Chi Minh and the origins of the Vietnamese doctrine of guerrilla tactics

In a very important sense, the Vietnamese military history of the communist era began in 1941, when Ho Chi Minh prepared ‘Guerrilla Tactics’ (Cach Danh Du Kich).1 ?1. Ministry of Defense Center for the Military Encyclopedia Ministry of Defense Center for the Military Encyclopedia. 1996. Tu Dien Bach Hoa Quan Su Vietnam, Hanoi: People's Army Publishing Company.  [Google Scholar], Tu Dien Bach Hoa Quan Su Vietnam, 69. The publication of this essay, which was a manual on the tactics, techniques, and procedures of guerrilla warfare, preceded the founding of the first armed propaganda unit (Tuyen Truyen Doi Vo Trang) on 22 December 1944, which later became the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN, Quan Doi Nhan Dan); as well as the revolutionary writings of Truong Chinh (1946–1947) and Vo Nguyen Giap (1959). The fact that ‘Tactics’ was published by the Viet Minh reinforces the claim made by the PAVN that it was the first authoritative Vietnamese writing on this important subject.     

卫星导航接收机鉴相器有限字长效应研究

卫星导航接收机跟踪信号的能力取决于锁相环的跟踪精度,相位鉴别器在锁相环设计中具有重要地位。针对点积鉴相器和二象限反正切鉴相器在输入信号有限字长效应下,对鉴相器性能的影响问题,建立了鉴相器有限字长误差模型。通过理论推导输入信号的统计特性,计算得到鉴相器输入信号均值和方差表达式,并分析了有限字长对鉴相器的均值和方差、收敛区间和鉴别增益的影响情况。由理论和仿真验证,得出了鉴相器在输入信号有效位数3比特以上时,对环路跟踪精度没有影响的结论。     

基于Gauss伪谱法的空空导弹最优中制导律设计

研究Gauss伪谱法在空空导弹最优中制导律设计中的应用。建立空空导弹中制导律设计问题最优控制模型,首次提出采用Gauss伪谱法求解最优中制导律设计问题的思路,详细阐述了求解流程,通过仿真算例验证了求解方法的有效性,并同比例导引、打靶法等传统方法进行了对比。仿真结果表明,综合考虑性能指标、计算精度、计算效率等因素,Gauss伪谱法具有明显优势,Gauss伪谱法求解结果和求解效率与配点个数密切相关。研究结果为空空导弹中制导律设计提供理论参考。     

一种开放式PKI身份认证模型的研究

分析了传统PKI(Public Key Infrastructure)身份认证模型存在的问题,基于OCSP(Online Certificate Status Protocol)协议的证书状态验证服务和密钥验证服务相分离,造成了传统PKI身份认证模型的信任度下降,增加了身份认证的风险,跨CA(Certificate Authority)认证复杂度高,CA机构提供的身份认证服务不完整等问题。提出了一种开放式PKI身份认证模型,由CA中心独立完成两个验证服务,将OCSP应答机制改进为提供身份证明文件的方式,可有效解决上述问题。通过云信任评估模型对两种认证模型进行了量化评估,证明了本文提出的开放式身份认证模型可有效提高信任度。对该模型进行了原型实现,重点对性能问题进行了优化,实验测试表明,该模型具有实用价值。     

介质涂覆SIW宽边纵缝分析

在波导缝隙天线表面涂敷介质层可以起到保护、隔热的作用,而且合理设计介质层参数能够改善天线的性能。利用等效关系,将介质涂覆SIW缝隙模型等效为介质涂覆矩形波导缝隙模型,利用矩量法研究了缝隙的特性,并和商业仿真软件HFSS的结果进行了比较,本文方法在保持较高计算精度的同时,将计算时间减少了一个量级。在此基础上,以单层、两层和三层介质涂敷为例,分析了涂覆介质的介电常数和厚度对缝隙谐振长度和归一化谐振导纳的影响,为涂敷介质层的优化设计奠定了基础。     

土质边坡工程风险分析

扼要地阐述了边坡工程事故引发的原因和边坡工程体系包含的不确定因素,从自然、社会、经济、管理等方面对这些因素进行了归纳,介绍了安全评估的故障树分析法以及由顶事件概率求底事件概率的计算公式.从技术的角度对土质开挖边坡工程体系进行了研究,建立了边坡工程故障树模型以及在此模型下边坡工程风险事件发生概率Pf的计算方法.在求解风险损失的过程中分析了传统专家调查法存在的不足,从而提出改进的专家调查法.通过工程实例,定性和定量地对边坡工程风险进行了分析,利用风险分级体系对风险的大小进行评价,为边坡工程风险管理提供了一定的依据.     

典型人因可靠性分析方法评述

对比较典型的第一代和第二代人因可靠性分析方法进行综述。首先讨论人因可靠性的基本定义;然后选取几种比较有代表意义的第一代方法进行对比分析,以此为基础介绍第一代方法的基本思想和特征;接下来分析第二代人因可靠性分析方法中两种典型方法,讨论它们的基本特点,并分析它们相对于第一代人因可靠性分析方法的优势以及自身的一些问题;最后展望人因可靠性分析方法的发展趋势。     

长码直扩信号的符号速率盲估计方法

针对长码直接序列扩频(DSSS)信号的符号速率估计的难题,提出了基于相关处理的方法。该方法首先估计长码直扩信号的相关函数二阶矩,然后将相关函数二阶矩的估计作为输入信号进行预处理,以去除扩频码周期处的峰值。对预处理后的信号再次进行自相关处理,则所得的信号的频谱中含有符号速率谱线。理论分析和计算机仿真证明了所提出的算法的有效性。